Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 0.796382 0.915214 1.042008 1.186954 1.347642 1.519901 1.718097
2025-02-23 0.592254 0.744679 0.918767 1.130761 1.380307 1.663062 2.005928
2025-03-02 0.432549 0.596163 0.796212 1.055231 1.377853 1.762453 2.251221
2025-03-09 0.335416 0.506494 0.730058 1.036827 1.439317 1.941489 2.606498
2025-03-16 0.255663 0.424900 0.661728 1.006090 1.481317 2.100437 2.952323
2025-03-23 0.209262 0.381124 0.637537 1.030552 1.597762 2.364953 3.455574
2025-03-30 0.156320 0.316142 0.572331 0.988173 1.617534 2.502621 3.803473
2025-04-06 0.120417 0.270450 0.528431 0.970597 1.669891 2.688719 4.231330
2025-04-13 0.090962 0.228443 0.482741 0.943213 1.703734 2.850308 4.636211
2025-04-20 0.073288 0.204247 0.463107 0.955163 1.798887 3.108384 5.197028
2025-04-27 0.057405 0.178953 0.436557 0.951148 1.867249 3.330338 5.718459
2025-05-04 0.046437 0.161328 0.421366 0.965044 1.966168 3.606114 6.337607
2025-05-11 0.036271 0.142591 0.401448 0.970002 2.055092 3.880314 6.984622
2025-05-18 0.026389 0.120088 0.368125 0.943655 2.085775 4.062346 7.499454
2025-05-25 0.017937 0.097018 0.327253 0.894737 2.069145 4.163644 7.891176
2025-06-01 0.013390 0.084510 0.309206 0.891604 2.138788 4.417383 8.547740
2025-06-08 0.009537 0.071759 0.286742 0.874562 2.178973 4.621889 9.133599
2025-06-15 0.007686 0.066569 0.284508 0.904761 2.317677 5.011876 10.055092
2025-06-22 0.005125 0.054962 0.258867 0.873044 2.324022 5.160074 10.566998
2025-06-29 0.003574 0.047153 0.242678 0.862210 2.373246 5.390428 11.233562
2025-07-06 0.002357 0.039539 0.224102 0.841276 2.397483 5.574003 11.825039
2025-07-13 0.001750 0.035776 0.218558 0.855374 2.501587 5.916997 12.717664
2025-07-20 0.001206 0.031323 0.208401 0.854239 2.570078 6.193576 13.500872